Big News, Time to Celebrate – or Hide our Heads in the Sand?

Photo is from: The Betooda Advocate

We almost missed this incredible date!!! July 1^st – the date almost past without realizing that it had come and gone!!! We have known for years that this will happen – and it has happened. On July 1^st, the eldest of the Canadian Baby Boomers started to reach the age of their average life expectancy.

For years we have talked about the aging demographic – and for years people referred to this as a GREY TSUNAMI until some very wise person pointed out that TSUNAMIS are not expected, while this aging demographic is expected! We have known it is coming.

So, welcome BABY BOOMERS! (And YES, that includes me!)

Let’s look at the numbers:

Canadian Baby Boomers are those born between 1946 and 1965.
The average life expectancy in Canada is about 79.5 years for men and 83.9 years for women.
By adding the average life expectancy to the birth year of the earliest Baby Boomers (1946):

Gender	Birth Year	Life Expectancy (Years)	Milestone Year
Men	1946	79.5	2025.5
Women	1946	83.9	2029.9

Men: The first Baby Boomers (born in 1946) will reach their average life expectancy in 2025 (July 1^st to be exact).
Women: The first Baby Boomers (born in 1946) will reach their average life expectancy in 2030.

Here is the summary:

Canadian Baby Boomers will start reaching their average life expectancy in 2025 (men) and 2030 (women).
Those born later in the Baby Boomer cohort (up to 1965) will reach this milestone in the mid-2040s to late 2040s.

What does this mean for the number of deaths per year? How will the number of deaths increase in Canada from 2015 to 2025 to 2035

The impact of Baby Boomers on Annual Deaths in Canada (2015–2035)
As Baby Boomers reach their average life expectancy, Canada is experiencing a significant demographic shift. This aging population is leading to a marked increase in the number of deaths per year.

Annual Deaths in Canada: Key Figures

Year	Estimated Deaths per Year	Notes
2015	~264,000	Based on historical data¹
2025	~330,000	Most recent annual figure¹ ²
2035	Projected: 400,000+	Based on population aging trends³^,⁴

2015: Around 264,000 deaths were recorded.
2025: The number of annual deaths has risen to about 330,000 — a 25% increase over a decade.
2035: Projections indicate the annual number of deaths could exceed 400,000 as the Baby Boomer cohort ages and reaches (or surpasses) their life expectancy. A 50% increase in the past two decades.

What to Expect by 2035

Annual deaths will continue to climb as the Baby Boomer generation ages, peaking in the 2030s.
After 2035, the growth in annual deaths is expected to plateau as the Baby Boomer cohort declines and the proportion of seniors stabilizes.⁴
Healthcare and social systems will face increased pressure due to the higher number of deaths and the needs of an older population.

Summary Table

Year	Estimated Deaths	% Increase from 2015
2015	~264,000¹	–
2025	~330,000¹ ²	+25%
2035	400,000+³^,⁴	+50% or more

Conclusion

The number of deaths per year in Canada is rising sharply, primarily due to the aging Baby Boomer generation. From 2015 to 2025, annual deaths increased by about 25%, and by 2035, they are projected to be at least 50% higher than in 2015. This trend is expected to stabilize after 2035 as the demographic bulge of Baby Boomers passes through the oldest age groups.

What I have not included here is that the way in which we die has changed. More people will die with chronic life-limiting illnesses, and will need care for a longer period of time. So, we have to learn new ways to care, new systems to provide care!

How can we best provide care, meet the increasing demands? Ideas include:

Integrate palliative care competencies in core curriculum for all health care providers, and provide continuing education, mentorship to help develop advanced competencies
Integrate a palliative approach for people with any life-limiting illness, early in the disease process, and across all care settings.
Empower ALL health care providers to be part of the team to integrate a palliative approach.
Develop specialty palliative care consultation services for those people who experience more difficult symptoms or face more challenging psychosocial issues.
Nurture Compassionate Communities – and provide education for family, friends and neighbours.

In 2007, looking at the numbers, looking at the changes in the ways that we are dying, I came to the realization that we would need to learn new ways, that our systems would have to change. I realized that this day would come. And here we are. What do you see? How do you feel we can, and how we should address the increase in dying in the years ahead? How can we care differently?